Temporal trends in disability adjusted life year and mortality for colorectal cancer attributable to a high red meat diet in China from 1990 to 2021: an analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021
Liu Y, Zhu C, Song H, Che M, Xu B, An B
BMC gastroenterology · 3 citations
Review labels
Neutral facts our review recorded about how this study was done. They describe method, never whether we like the result.
How it was studied
- Design
- Cross-sectional study (classified by our AI screen)
- Studied in
- People
- Main outcome
- Clinical events such as disease or death
- Intake measured by
- Not stated
Who paid for it
- Funding
- Independent funding
- Government
- Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province
- Grants
- Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province (2022NSFSC0748)
Based on 1 listed funder(s) and full-text disclosure statement.
Publication
- Published
- 2024-12-27 · BMC Gastroenterol · vol. 24 · issue 1 · p. 476
- Publisher
- BioMed Central
- Cited
- 7 citations · more than 91% of similar papers · 2.7× the field average
- Impact
- Top 10% most cited in its field
- References
- 82 works
- Access
- Open access (journal) · CC-BY-NC-ND
- Research areas
- Nutritional Studies and Diet · Colorectal Cancer Screening and Detection · Dietary Effects on Health
- Keywords
- Medicine, Red meat, Colorectal cancer, Demography, China, Disease burden, Autoregressive integrated moving average, Environmental health, Cohort, Disease, Cancer, Gerontology, Internal medicine, Geography, Time series, Pathology
- MeSH
- humans, colorectal neoplasms, diet, risk factors, quality-adjusted life years, adult, aged, aged, 80 and over, middle aged, china, female, male, young adult, red meat, global burden of disease, disability-adjusted life years
6 authors
From CN
- Yuxin LiuChengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine
- Chaofu ZhuChengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine
- Hao-Nan SongChengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine
- Mengqi CheChengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine
- Bo XuChengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine
- Baiping An · correspondingChengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine
Abstract
Background
High red meat consumption is a main modifiable risk factor for colorectal cancer mortality (CRC), but its attributable disease burden remains unclear in China. We aimed to analyze the temporal trends in CRC deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to high red meat consumption in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the disease burden in the next 15 years.
Methods
Data was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study. The Joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC). In addition, the age-period-cohort (APC) model was employed to explore the effects of age, period, and cohort on CRC mortality. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was utilized to predict the disease burden in 2022-2036. We also compared the CRC burden attributed to high red meat in China with 204 countries worldwide.
Results
The results showed that the number of CRC deaths in China due to high red meat consumption increased nearly 2.5 times, from 17,608 (95% UI: -3 to 36,613) in 1990 to 43,580 (95% UI: -16 to 92,083) in 2021. Male CRC deaths exhibited a more pronounced increase, rising from 9,800 in 1990 to 27,600 in 2021. Additionally, the number of DALYs increased from 518,213 (95% UI: -105,107 to 1,074,174) in 1990 to 1,091,788 (95% UI: -509 to 2,295,779) in 2021. Joinpoint regression analysis confirmed that the AAPC in ASDR and ASMR was - 0.20 (95% CI: -0.40 ∼ 0.00) and - 0.30 (95% CI: -0.40 ~ -0.10). When age, period, and cohort effects were examined as the reference group, the risk of CRC was found to increase with age. However, women experienced a marked decline in both period and cohort effects compared to men.
Conclusions
Compared to global levels, the burden in China is heavier. In terms of mortality or DALY standardized rates, Chinese women show a similar downward trend to the overall trend, while Chinese men show a striking upward trend. This study provides valuable insights into enhancing CRC prevention and improving dietary patterns in China.
Abstract via Europe PMC. Copyright remains with the authors or publisher (CC BY-NC-ND).
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